BMFN: December 9th Foreign Exchange Review

American market

As of 16:30 pm New York time (Beijing time at 09:30 am on December 09), the Standard & Poor's index rose 4.83 points, or 0.22%, to 2246.19 points; the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 65.06 points, or 0.33%, to 19,614.68. Point; the Nasdaq index rose 23.60 points, or 0.44%, to 5,417.36 points.

Since 2014, the market's consistent strategy is that the S&P index has recovered steadily at the bottom, rebounding more than 5% and then buying on dips. However, Bank of America warned on Thursday that the inflationary turmoil in the United States after Trump's tenure may put the Federal Reserve on a shackle and make it a key support for the "buy-buy" model. A very important aspect is that financial market liquidity is unprecedentedly sensitive to the Fed's monetary policy, even for official speeches that have less impact on the market.

Rogoff, a well-known economist and professor of economics at Harvard University, said on Wednesday that people who believe that the US economy will be stagnant for a long time may say that Trumpâ€™s high economic growth is almost impossible. However, the author believes that under the influence of a series of policies, the US economy is likely to make a comeback in the next few years. The author said that if we believe that the slow growth of the US economy in the past eight years is mainly due to excess debt and fear of the 2008 crisis, it is not difficult to believe that the distance between the United States and the normalization of growth may be much closer than it is recognized. .

US Newly elected President Trump Economic Advisor Judy Shelton said the Fed should not be a driving force for the US economy because the effects of monetary stimulus are limited. She said that what the US economy really needs is productivity improvement; and it should improve the productivity of the entire country through tax restructuring, regulatory restructuring, trade restructuring and important infrastructure construction. Therefore, the promotion of the US economy should not be the Fed. After all, the effectiveness of monetary stimulus is limited.

European market

The British Financial Times 100 index rose 29.32 points, or 0.42%, to 6931.55 points; the German DAX index rose 192.73 points, or 1.75%, to 11179.42 points; the French CA C index rose 40.76 points, or 0.87%, to 4735.48 points.

On Friday in the Asian market, the euro rallied lower against the US dollar and then fell back. It is now trading at 1.0615. BNP Paribas said that the European Central Bank's December interest rate decision announced the extension of quantitative easing as scheduled until March 2017, but from April 2017 to December, additional implementation of monthly QE 60 billion euros. According to FX678, this means that the total amount of QE has increased by 540 billion euros, and the total has increased to about 2.28 trillion euros.

A number of analysts said on Thursday that the ECBâ€™s decision to reduce the monthly asset purchases from April was a stimulant for the euro; although policymakers said it is still likely to increase the size of the acquisition or extend the quantitative easing time. Investors may be inclined to be skeptical. Bank of America Merrill Lynch strategists believe that this is actually a code-reduction QE that will disappoint the market. Extending the QE time and reducing the monthly size is actually a weak QE; in any case, the market has not expected the European Central Bank to stop QE next year. After the short-term market reaction, today's decision favors the euro, if everything else does not change.

Spot gold was under pressure on Thursday as the dollar rebounded, but market sentiment improved and remained above the $1,170 mark. In the crude oil market, the questioning of the implementation of production cuts and whether the production cuts can solve the oversupply caused the US oil to fall below the $50 integer mark; however, with the relief of fears, the US oil gradually rose to close to the $51 mark. European stock markets generally rose, and US stocks rose and fell.

Asia Pacific Market

As of 09:50 Beijing time, the Nikkei 225 index was 18,852.44 points, up 86.97 points, or 0.46%; the Korea Composite Index was 2,026.30 points, down 4.77 points, or 0.23%; the ASX common stock index was 5,562.10 points, up 18.47 points. , an increase of 0.33%. The New Zealand 50 Index was at 6889.14 points, down 26.87 points, or 0.39%. The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index closed at 22,765.84 points, down 96.00 points, or 0.42%.

As of press time, the Shanghai Composite Securities Index reported 3209.3395 points; the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index reported 3346.87 points.

India has cracked down on new money! Last month, Indian Prime Minister Modi suddenly announced the abolition of the old version of the large-value banknotes of 500 and 1000 rupees. According to statistics, the circulation of Indian banknotes of 500 and 1000 rupees was 85%. Therefore, this caused an uproar in the country's economic field. Now, the Indian government seems to be targeting gold again. According to foreign media, some local governments in India have searched the homes of Indian residents and unconditionally confiscated gold jewelry.

Reuters's survey on Thursday showed that the popularity of the emerging Asian countries' currencies has not been so low in the past two weeks as the dollar has fallen sharply after Trump unexpectedly won the election. A survey of 18 fund managers, analysts and foreign exchange traders from Tuesday to Thursday showed that the short position of the yuan has hit a two-month low since this week. At this time, Chinese regulators have taken measures to prevent capital outflows.

International economic data released today and forthcoming

Time event importance value market forecast result

New Zealand's monthly credit card spending rate of 0.6% in November

07:50 Japan's November M2+CD money supply is 3.7% lower 3.7% 4%

Japan's M3 money supply in November was 3.2% lower 3.2% 3.4%

Japan's fourth quarter BSI all large industry index is low 1.9 3

Japan's fourth quarter BSI large manufacturing confidence index is 2.9 7.5 lower

Japan's fourth quarter BSI large non-manufacturing confidence index is 1.4 0.7 lower

08:30 Australia's October home loan permit rate is 1.6% lower -1.0% -0.8%

Australia's October home loan total monthly rate is 0.9% -0.8%

09:30 China's November consumer price index is 2.1% higher 2.2%

China's November producer price index is 1.2% per annum. 2.3

Japan's November machine tool annual rate initial value -8.9%

14:45 Switzerland's unemployment rate in November was 3.2% 3.3%

Switzerland's unemployment rate in November (after seasonal adjustment) 3.3% 3.3%

15:00 Germany's October trade account is 24.4 billion euros and 22 billion euros

Germany's monthly export rate in October (after seasonal adjustment) is low -0.7% 0.9%

Germany's monthly import rate in October (after seasonal adjustment) -0.5% 1.1%

Germany's current account in October was 24.2 billion euros and 22 billion euros

Germany's third quarter labor cost is 1.8% lower

Germany's third quarter labor cost quarterly rate is 0.2% lower

15:45 France's manufacturing output rate in October -0.9% 0.1%

France's industrial production rate in October -1.1% -0.6%

France's October manufacturing output monthly rate is low -1.1% 0.7%

France's October industrial production rate is low -1.1% 0.6%

17:30 UK trade account in October - 5.221 billion pounds - 4.3 billion pounds

UK October trade account (non-EU) - 3.969 billion pounds - 3.45 billion pounds

UK October merchandise trade account -12.7 billion pounds -1.88 billion pounds

UK construction industry output rate of 0.2% -0.1% in October

UK construction industry output monthly rate is 0.3% lower 0.2%

23:00 US December University of Michigan consumer confidence index initial value is 93.8 94.5

US October wholesale sales rate is 0.2% lower 0.7%

US October wholesale inventory monthly rate is low -0.4% -0.4%

The initial value of the current state of the University of Michigan in December is 107.3 107.5

US December University of Michigan Expected Index Initial Value Low 85.2 86.0

Financial events

time

country

location

event

17:45

Eurozone

Maastricht

European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker delivered a speech at the EU meeting.

22:30

Eurozone

Maastricht

Â· Euro Group Chairman Jerome Dijsselbloem delivered a speech at the EU meeting.

Central bank interest rate changes

Central bank

Latest interest rate

Ups and downs

Next announcement date

Federal Reserve

0.25-0.5

constant

2016-12-15

European Central Bank

0.00

constant

2017-01-19

Bank of England

0.25

Fall

2016-12-15

Bank of Japan

-0.1

constant

2016-12-20

Swiss central bank

-1.25%-0.25%

constant

2016-12-15

Bank of Canada

0.50

constant

Australian Central Bank

1.50

constant

2017-02-07

New Zealand Central Bank

1.75

Fall

2017-02-09

EUR/USD

Support level: 1.05932; resistance level: 1.06382