The world economy has fully recovered for the first time in eight years: the main pusher against the biggest threat

In 2017, the voice of the world economy is picking up. Recently, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its forecast for the short-term growth of the global economy for the first time in six years, and raised the 2017 world economic growth forecast from 3.4% to 3.5%. After the financial crisis in 2008 shocked the world for nearly nine years, a consensus is being reached - the world economy has finally bottomed out, and it has fully recovered, and the growth momentum is gratifying.

a general recovery that has not been seen in 8 years

From April 21st to 23rd, the IMF and World Bank spring meeting was held in Washington, DC. Prior to this, the two institutions issued the latest assessment report on the world economy, and issued a lot of exciting and good voices on the world economy that has recovered from the trend.

On the 18th, the IMF pointed out in a regular assessment of the global growth prospects of the World Economic Outlook update that global economic growth is expected to rise from 3.1% in 2016 to 3.5% in 2017 and 3.6% in 2018. Compared with the forecast in January this year, the IMF raised its global economic growth forecast by 0.1 percentage points this year, the first increase in six years.

The IMF believes that the acceleration of the global economy since the fourth quarter of 2016 has continued. Among them, the acceleration of economic growth expectations in emerging markets and developing economies is the main supporting factor. According to the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, China's economy grew by 6.9% in the first quarter of 2017.

The World Bank also pointed out in the "Half-year Report on East Asia and the Pacific" that the economic prospects of East Asian developing countries will generally improve in the next three years, which is due to the strong domestic demand and the gradual recovery of the global economy and commodity prices. .

What is even more gratifying is that the pace of the world economy has become more consistent than the previous development of “a few happy families”.

"Overall, the world economy has fully entered the recovery cycle, which has not happened in the past 8 years. If the forecast is accurate, the world's major economies will be in positive growth in 2017." Chen Fengying, a researcher at the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, accepted In an interview, our reporter pointed out that in recent months, the strong manufacturing index of the major economies and the Baltic Dry Index, which has begun to rebound, also show that the real economy is gradually recovering, and the international economy is now different from the past. It will also bottom out from the bottom.

With regard to the trend of the world economy in 2017, such an optimistic analysis has become mainstream.

The "Global Economic Recovery Tracking Index" jointly published by the Brookings Institution and the Financial Times recently showed that after the financial crisis, the global economic recovery is becoming "universal and stable." ". Among them, developed economies are entering a reasonable path of economic growth, and deflationary pressures are alleviating. The situation in emerging economies has also improved significantly, and the growth index has climbed sharply from last year's historically lower level to the highest level since the beginning of 2013.

"Nihon Keizai Shimbun" quoted a more specific analysis from the opinion of the president of the investment management company BlackRock Group Japan, Izawa Katsuyuki: the US wage level began to rise, European credit began to increase, and the Chinese economy began to recover with domestic demand. The economies of Australia and Brazil, the exporters of coal and iron ore, have improved. The Russian economy is getting out of trouble due to the bottoming out of oil prices. The economies of Asian countries that export more to China are also recovering. It can be seen that "the current pace of recovery of the world economy is exact."

Moderate growth under the combined effect

"The world economy has declined from 2009, and began to recover in 2010, and then fell into a trough. Now it has entered a period of slow climb. Such an economic cycle does exist." Chen Fengying pointed out that this round of comprehensive recovery of the world economy is the first. It can be seen as a stabilization of the cyclical market after it bottoms out. Therefore, although the geopolitical situation in some areas and the domestic political situation in some countries are still complicated and severe, it is difficult to have a great impact on this round of recovery.

"The United Kingdom is an example. The British 'Brexit' has not affected the expansion of its domestic economy." Chen Fengying said.

In addition to cyclical factors, global restructuring, industrial upgrading, and innovation growth have also made the world economy's pace of improvement better than ever.

"In the past few years, in the context of the world economic growth, trade and investment generally depressed, countries have taken some measures to expand infrastructure investment, increase employment, and develop the real economy. For example, the United States proposed 're-industrialization', Germany proposed 'Industry 4.0 'China proposes to revitalize the real economy, and the G20 also launches a global infrastructure interconnection plan. It should be said that these policies are gradually taking effect now." Xu Hongcai, deputy chief economist of China International Economic Exchange Center, pointed out to reporters that countries have increased infrastructure and other fields. The investment, such as the “One Belt and One Road” initiative proposed by China, the ongoing Junker investment plan in Europe not only stimulated employment, but also promoted foreign trade import and export, which made the world economy form a good momentum of moderate climb.

In addition, starting from the fourth quarter of 2016, the manufacturing indices of the world's major manufacturing countries such as the United States, China, Japan, the United Kingdom, Germany and France began to expand simultaneously, generally exceeding the 50-point boundary. Some analysts pointed out that this indicates that the global manufacturing industry will enter the expansion track in the future, thereby stimulating trade and investment to accelerate growth. The Financial Times also believes that the IMF’s upward revision is expected to include a broader recovery in global manufacturing since mid-2016, in addition to better-than-expected economic news from Europe, China and Japan.

In Xu Hongcai's view, innovation is another important driving force for the overall growth of the world economy. "In recent years, countries have intensified their investment in innovation and research and development, and promoted the transformation and upgrading of their industries, net worth, information, and strive to move toward the mid-to-high end of the industrial chain in the fierce competition."

Chen Fengying also holds the same view. She pointed out that China, the United States, Russia, Brazil, Japan and other major economies are undergoing structural adjustment and industrial upgrading, which makes the growth rate of these economies relatively stable. “In addition, the price of bulk commodities that contributed 85% to the growth of international trade has rebounded. The exporting countries of Latin America and the Middle East have been exporting, and imports have started. The volume of international trade has increased.” Chen Fengying believes that the current world economy This round of moderate growth is experiencing the combined effects of factors such as cyclicality, structurality, and innovation transformation.

Multiple risks that cannot be ignored

Of course, another consensus is also worthy of attention. That is, this round of recovery in the world economy is still in its infancy, and the existing vulnerability cannot be ignored.

In the report released by the IMF, the six major risks faced by the world economy in 2017 are listed, including the prevalence of trade protectionism, the risk of US dollar interest rate hikes, the relaxation of financial supervision, the reduction of the financial position of individual economies, low demand, low inflation, and A vicious circle of balance and low growth, geopolitical pressures, internal political battles, ruling corruption, extreme weather and terrorism and other non-economic areas.

Among them, the rising trend of trade protectionism is the most worrying trend of all parties. Recently, IMF President Lagarde reaffirmed the long-term position of the IMF in a speech entitled "The Sword of Trade Protectionism" that trade protectionism would threaten the global economic expansion.

"Trade protectionism is not conducive to a strong recovery of the global economy. Countries should promote the strong, sustainable, balanced and inclusive growth of the world economy as advocated by the G20 summit." Xu Hongcai pointed out that only by expanding openness and cooperation and exerting innovation and technological progress. The role is the key to ensuring the sustainability of world economic growth in the future.

The US policy direction is also seen as a major problem in the current global economy. IMF chief economist Morris? Obstfeld pointed out that Trump's expansionary fiscal policy may stimulate inflation, causing the Fed to raise interest rates faster than expected, such actions may trigger a sharp appreciation of the dollar, which may impact emerging economies. Japan’s “Financial Finance and Trade” magazine also proposed a similar view, saying that “Trump economics” may have a stimulating effect on the US economy in the short term, but in the long run it is “a lot more bad” and may increase the neighboring countries such as Mexico. And the debt and financial risks of emerging countries.

A few days ago, there was another news from the Federal Reserve that caused the market to shake. The minutes of the March meeting released by the Federal Reserve showed that policymakers plan to start shrinking a huge balance sheet of up to $4.5 trillion by the end of this year.

“Unlike the Fed’s interest rate hike, this income-receiving plan means that the US dollar assets have to be tightened. This is what the world has not experienced in the past. How should national macroeconomic policies adjust to meet new risks? This puts forward the ability of national policy makers to respond. Challenge.” Chen Fengying pointed out that the current US economic policy is not in place is another uncertainty facing the world economy.

Xu Hongcai also believes that in the face of the large spillover effects of macroeconomic policies in developed economies, countries around the world must strengthen coordination of macroeconomic policies and form concerted actions to jointly address challenges and prevent potential risks.

However, the analysis generally believes that the overall moderate growth of the world economy this year, although not comparable to the strong growth before the 2008 financial crisis, generally does not easily "reverse the car." As Chen Fengying said: "The world economy has indeed entered a cyclical expansion, and as long as there are no reversal events, this cycle is difficult to change."