February 19th Financial Breakfast: US President's Day off Spring Festival holiday news calm

The week of February 19th to February 25th, February 19th is the US President’s Day, and the day is closed. This week, the Reserve Bank of Australia and the European Central Bank will announce the minutes of the meeting. Important figures for the February Markit manufacturing PMI in France, Germany and the Eurozone, as well as the total number of oilfield Baker Hughes oil wells in the US on February 23 will be announced. A number of Fed amnesties will deliver a speech.

Market hotspots this week include:

1 Monday (February 19), the US President’s Day, closed for one day; the Chinese Spring Festival is closed; Japan announced that it did not adjust the commodity trade account in January;

2 Tuesday (February 20), China and Taiwan are closed for one day; Australia Fed's February meeting minutes; Germany's March Gfk consumer confidence index; Germany's February ZEW economic sentiment index; Switzerland's January trade account; February ZEW economic sentiment index; UK CBI industrial order difference in February; New Zealand's global dairy auction price index change rate for the week ending February 20;

3 Wednesday (February 21), China and Taiwan are closed for one day; Federal Reserve Kashkali speaks; France's Markit manufacturing PMI initial value in February; Germany's February Markit manufacturing PMI initial value; Eurozone February Markit manufacturing PMI initial value; UK unemployment rate in January; UK ILO unemployment rate as of December three months; Federal Reserve Huck delivered a speech; Bank of England Governor Carney delivered a speech; US February Markit manufacturing PMI initial value; The total number of existing home sales in January;

4 Thursday (February 22), minutes of the Fed's January meeting; US crude oil inventories changed as of February 16; France's January CPI annual rate; Germany's February IFO business climate index; UK fourth quarter GDP Annual rate correction; minutes of the European Central Bank's January meeting; the number of US jobless claims as of the week of February 17; Canada's December retail sales monthly rate; Fed's voter Dudley's speech; US January Conference Board leading indicator monthly rate; US EIA natural gas inventory as of the week of February 16;

5 Friday (February 23), Japan's national CPI annual rate in January; Germany's fourth quarter quarterly adjusted GDP quarterly rate; Eurozone's January seasonally unchanged C; PI annual rate final value; Canada January CPI annual rate; Federal Reserve Voter Dudley gave a speech;

6 Saturday (February 24), the United States on February 23, the week of the oil service Baker Hughes oil drilling total; the Federal Reserve this year, the vote committee Meister issued a speech; CFTC foreign exchange gold crude oil position report; China National Bureau of Statistics released 70 Monthly report on residential sales prices in large and medium cities;

Monday opening market:

This week, the exchange market opened in an orderly manner, and there was no obvious gap. As of press time, the euro against the US dollar reported 1.2421; the pound against the US dollar reported 1.4037; the dollar against the yen reported 106.280.

There was no significant gap in the opening of the precious metals this week. As of the press release, the spot gold was reported at $1,349.11 per ounce; the spot silver was reported at $16.67 per ounce.

As for the oil market, the US WTI crude oil futures contract was quoted at US$61.86/barrel as of the press release; the oil futures contract was reported at US$64.90/barrel.

Last week's review:

1. The US 2019 fiscal year budget plan was released, with a total scale of 4.4 trillion US dollars, accounting for 21% of the US GDP. Congress plans are expected to support higher spending on military and immigration enforcement, in addition to cutting entitlements and other domestic programs.

2. The UK does face great uncertainty from the Brexit negotiations. Bank of England Commissioner McCafferty believes that the UK economy is not bleak. The current stock market volatility is a correction. The UK's economic growth is at its limit, interest rates must rise gradually, and the market expects to raise interest rates three times in the next three years.

3. The United States is suffering losses due to dumping in other countries. US President Trump hopes to hear the views of the two parties on trade matters and said that there should be a reciprocal tax. Trump hopes that Democrats will make a tit-for-tat proposal on infrastructure issues, intending to implement "reciprocal tax" on certain types of imported goods, but may not end up with a tax system like reciprocal tax.

4. The New York Fed survey showed that the US 3-year inflation forecast was 2.8%. House price increases are expected to be 3.5%, the highest since May 2017, and inflation expectations are slightly down in January. 3-year inflation is expected to be 2.8% in January and 2.9% in December.

5. US and US retail sales unexpectedly declined in January and December, indicating that consumer demand may cool down. Retail sales unexpectedly fell in January and recorded the biggest drop in nearly a year as households cut spending on cars and building materials.

6. OPEC non-OPEC production reduction agreement is still in progress. OPEC Secretary-General Barkins expects that crude oil demand will remain strong this year, crude oil inventories will further decline, and the implementation rate of OPEC and non-OPEC production cuts reached a record high in January.

7. The UK announced January inflation data, which exceeded expectations. According to the specific data, the UK CPI annual rate actually recorded 3% in January, which was unchanged from the previous value and 0.1 percentage points higher than the expected value. The UK core CPI annual rate in January was 2.70%, which was 0.2% higher than the previous and expected values ​​respectively. 0.1 percentage points.

8. U.S. Treasury Secretary Nuchin is satisfied with the economic growth forecast in the budget, and the issue of tax reform in the United States is being discussed with the European side. Nuchin still expects that the US salary increase this year will be accelerated, and the United States will impose more sanctions on Russia.

9. U.S. Treasury Secretary Nuchin said that US President Trump strongly supports the promotion of "market fairness" and determines the 2.9% economic growth expectation of the US President Trump administration. The factors affecting retailers Nuchin believes or needs to make Tax adjustment.

10. The number of jobless claims in the United States last week rose slightly to 230,000, but it still implies a strong US labor market. The labor market is close to full employment, with the unemployment rate at a 17-year low of 4.1%. The tight labor market is beginning to exert upward pressure on wage growth and is expected to push up inflation.

11. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe officially nominated Kuroda to be the governor of the Bank of Japan. "Mr. Bank of Japan" Yukio Masaaki and "re-inflation school" economist Tanibe Masahiro will serve as deputy governor. These three nominations mean the Japanese economy. Will be able to remain stable and will continue the current strong monetary stimulus.

12. The annual rate of new housing starts in the United States increased by 9.7% in January, mainly driven by the rebound in single-family building construction, and may further increase as construction permits rose to the highest level since 2007.

List of major global market conditions

stock market

Name of the latest price rises and falls

Shanghai Composite Index 3199.16 14.20 0.45%

Shenzhen Stock Exchange 10431.91 69.48 0.67%

Nikkei 225 21720.30 255.30 1.19%

NASDAQ Index 7234.47 -16.96 -0.23%

Dow Jones Industrial 25219.38 19.01 0.08%

British FTSE 7294.70 59.89 0.83%

å¾·DAX 12451.96 105.79 0.86%

Method CAC40 5281.58 59.06 1.13%

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 19.01 points on Friday, or 0.08%, to 25,219.38 points. The S&P 500 index closed up 1.02 points on Friday, or 0.04%, to 2732.22 points. The Nasdaq index closed down 16.96 points on Friday. The decline was 0.23%, which was reported at 7329.47 points.

commodity

Name of the latest price rises and falls

Spot gold 1374.26 -6.41 -0.47%

Spot palladium 1047.64 26.61 2.61%

Spot silver 16.65 -0.22 -1.31%

Spot Platinum 1005.42 3.32 0.33%

Hong Kong Gold 12456.00 -51.00 -0.41%

US crude oil continued for 61.60 0.26 0.42%

Spot silver closed down 0.22 points on Friday, down 1.31% to 16.65 points.

US crude oil closed up 0.26 points last Friday, or 0.42%, to 61.60 points.

In addition to the above quotes for gold, silver and crude oil, Huitong.com also quotes the Shanghai Gold Exchange for you.

Name of the latest price rises and falls

Gold 9999 273.21 2.07 0.76%

Gold extension 272.79 1.70 0.63%

Silver extension 3636.00 9.00 0.25%

Platinum 9995 214.80 1.49 0.7%

Silver 9999 3915.00 0.00 0%

Gold 9999 closed up 2.07 points on Friday, or 0.76%, to 273.21 points.

Foreign exchange

Name of the latest price rises and falls

US dollar index 89.12 0.55 0.62%

Euro USD 1.2409 -0.0097 -0.78%

Sterling US dollar 1.4033 -0.0066 -0.47%

USDJPY 106.27 0.14 0.13%

AUD $0.7906 -0.0039 -0.49%

The US dollar index rose to 86.12, or 0.62%. EUR/USD is now at 1.2409, down 0.78%; GBP/USD is now at 1.4033, down 0.47%; USD/JPY is now at 106.27, up 0.13%; AUD/USD is now at 0.7906, down 0.49%.

International financial information

1. The United States will disclose “reciprocal tax” with many other countries later this week. US President Trump has called for a reduction of $1.7 trillion in mandatory spending and fiscal revenue, as well as a cut in medical spending of $237 billion in 10 years. In the budget plan, Trump seeks to reduce non-defense spending after 2019 by 2% and propose a rural infrastructure project worth $50 billion. He believes that US infrastructure construction must be rebuilt.

2. The US 2019 fiscal year budget plan was released, with a total scale of 4.4 trillion US dollars, accounting for 21% of the US GDP. Congress plans are expected to support higher spending on military and immigration enforcement, in addition to cutting entitlements and other domestic programs.

3. The new chairman of the Federal Reserve, Powell, hinted that although the potential risks in the financial system are still closely monitored after the recent stock market crash, the Fed will continue to maintain the pace of gradual rate hikes. In his inaugural speech in Washington, he claimed that the Fed is gradually normalizing monetary policy and balance sheets while maintaining vigilance against any potential risks of financial stability.

4. The UK does face great uncertainty from the Brexit negotiations. Bank of England Commissioner McCafferty believes that the UK economy is not bleak. The current stock market volatility is a correction. The UK's economic growth is at its limit, interest rates must rise gradually, and the market expects to raise interest rates three times in the next three years.

5. British Foreign Secretary Johnson said that he would not conduct a second round of the Brexit referendum, saying that he can conduct good free trade with the EU. Some products may be reasonable in docking with EU standards, but the choice must be in the hands of the UK. The UK and EU negotiations on Brexit are progressing well.

6. Under the OPEC+ production reduction agreement, global crude oil supply is under control, and the Saudi King hopes to conduct more energy cooperation with Russia. Saudi Energy Minister Falih said that Saudi Arabia and Russia are engaged in dialogue on joint investment, and Saudi Aramco IPO and cooperation with Russia have made good progress.

7. The US Department of Labor report shows that US wholesale prices have risen in terms of energy and hospital service costs, highlighting signs of soaring inflation this month. Excluding food, energy and trade services The PP I price index is some of the economist's favorite data because it excludes the most volatile components, up 2.5% from the same period last year, the largest since August 2014.

8. The UK will still unconditionally fulfill its obligations to European security. British Prime Minister Teresa May is worried about Iran’s unstable actions and is ready to take further action. May hopes that British and German companies will maximize their market in both countries. freedom of.

Domestic financial information

Domestic macro

1. The financial statistics released by the People's Bank of China on January 12th showed that in January 2018, except for the scale of social financing was less than expected, the growth rate of M2 money supply and new credit exceeded expectations, and the new credit reached 29,000. 100 million yuan, a substantial increase over the previous value of 584.4 billion yuan, a record.

2. The scale of local bond issuance this year will be the same as 2017. It is estimated that the scale of local government debt replaced this year will be about 1.8 trillion yuan, the total amount of new local debt will be about 2 trillion yuan, and the total supply will be about 4 trillion yuan. According to public information from the Ministry of Finance, last year, local government bonds were issued 435.81 billion yuan.

3. The People's Bank of China stated in the “China Monetary Policy Implementation Report for the Fourth Quarter of 2017” released today that with the gradual optimization of China's economic structure, the lower M2 growth rate can still support the economy to achieve high-quality development. The financial data released in January 2018 recently showed that the M2 growth rate rebounded slightly to 8.6% at the end of January.

4. Looking forward to 2018, the People's Bank of China implemented a sound and neutral monetary policy, maintained a reasonable and stable liquidity, and managed the main gate of money supply to create a moderately moderate monetary and financial environment for supply-side structural reform and high-quality development.

Domestic stock market

1. On February 12, the GEM index rose 3.49%, up 55.58 points to 1648.09 points, the largest increase in half a year.

2. A-port financial stocks were short-selling yesterday, stimulating Hong Kong stocks to rise nearly 800 points, and the chicken year rose by about 7200 points, challenging the record of the 2009 Year of the Ox; the investment sector continued to run in the Year of the Dog, driving Hong Kong stocks to the top. floor.

3. According to the latest data from China Securities Depository and Clearing Co., Ltd., the number of investors in China's securities market has exceeded 135 million. Specifically, there are more than 135 million natural person investors, of which more than 134 million investors have opened A-share accounts, and 2.379 million have opened B-share accounts.

4. In the A-share market, there were 2,312 listed companies whose equity pledges were not released, and the pledges that had not been detained totaled 529.189 billion shares. The total market capitalization reached 6.67 trillion yuan, accounting for about 11% of the total market value of A shares. As of February 14, there were 2,312 listed companies in the A-share market that were not pledged, and the total number of pledged shares that had not been released was 529.189 billion shares. The total market capitalization reached 6.67 trillion yuan, accounting for about 11% of the total market value of A shares. Among them, there are 2,175 companies with a pledge rate of less than 50%, accounting for 94.1%.

5. The A-share market achieved smooth operation in “de-leveraging” and “de-bubbling”. The overall market is characterized by steady, moderate and upward trend, and the market differentiation has become a feature that the stock market has to say.

6. During the Spring Festival of 2018, A shares will be closed from February 15 to February 21, and normal transactions will resume on February 22. The Hong Kong stock market opened on the morning of February 15, closed in the afternoon, and closed from February 16 to February 19, and resumed normal trading on February 20. Shenzhen Stock Connect and Shanghai Stock Connect will be closed from February 15 to February 21 and will resume operation on February 22. Hong Kong Stock Connect (Shenzhen, Shanghai) closed trading from February 13 to February 21 and resumed on February 22.

Domestic property market

1. In January of this year, the land market is now gaining momentum. In January, the land transaction amounted to 499.3 billion yuan, of which TOP20 listed real estate transactions amounted to 150.525 billion yuan, accounting for 30.15% of the national land transaction amount. The transaction area of ​​land in first-tier cities increased and the premium rate decreased. The transaction area of ​​most cities has increased by a large margin year-on-year, and the transaction area of ​​a small number of cities has decreased slightly.

2. The National Development and Reform Commission issued the Catalogue of Overseas Investment-Sensitive Industries (2018 Edition), and the overseas investment regulations of enterprises have received much attention. In the past year, China surpassed the United States for the first time and became the largest buyer of the UK real estate market.

3. The central bank announced that the lending rate of financial institutions in the fourth quarter of last year did not rise or fall from September, down 2bp to 5.74%, mainly due to the 6bp loss of the general loan interest rate. In the fourth quarter of the year, the interest rate of mortgage loans averaged 5.26%, which is equivalent to a general increase in benchmark interest rates of about 10%, which is 71bp higher than the first quarter of 17th, which is equivalent to three interest rate hikes.