In recent weeks, the average transaction price of domestic stored cotton has dropped below 18,000 yuan per ton (net weight), while the price of cotton under the guidance of ICE remains relatively high. Most foreign sales contracts are for shipments between January and March 2011, leading to uncertainty among domestic cotton enterprises regarding the market trend in the first half of next year. As a result, over the past two to three weeks, the contracted volume of Chinese textile companies for imported cotton has seen a significant decline, and there is limited interest in inquiries.
Several large textile companies have indicated that their focus on foreign cotton imports is primarily on high-grade U.S. cotton, Central Asian cotton (with Uzbekistan cotton making up 80% of the supply), and Indian cotton, which offers better value. However, U.S. cotton shipments for December are already fully booked. Although the Indian government declared cotton as "freely exportable," the actual control over exports lies with the textile sector, and there has been no official response regarding the cancellation of the 2,500 rupees per ton tax rebate. This leaves the export policy subject to sudden changes.
Currently, major international cotton traders are offering Indian cotton for December shipments at prices slightly higher than West African cotton and comparable to U.S. EMOT cotton. Meanwhile, there is little or no quotation available for Central Asian cotton, particularly from Uzbekistan, which has been very low-key recently. On one hand, drought in key cotton-producing areas has affected yields and quality. Some organizations estimate that Uzbekistan's cotton production may drop by 30% in the 2010/11 season. On the other hand, demand from domestic Chinese cotton mills for Uzbekistan cotton has remained strong. For instance, a factory in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu, and several large factories in Wuxi rely heavily on Uzbekistan cotton, with some accounting for over 70% of their cotton needs. Most of these companies signed purchase contracts with Uzbekistan cotton exporters in May and June.
On August 22, the quoted price for EMOTM grade U.S. cotton in China’s main port free trade zones was between 93.10–93.30 cents per pound (12/1 ship date), while India’s Shankar-6M grade cotton was quoted at 93.40–93.60 cents per pound (11/12 schedule). Uzbekistan’s M-class cotton was priced at 96.40–96.60 cents per pound (12/1 shipping period). Based on these quotations, the net price of U.S. and Indian cotton in China’s main ports is approximately 16,600–16,700 yuan per ton, about 300–500 yuan per ton lower than the Zhengzhou Cotton CF1101 contract (which includes public pricing and warehouse receipt costs).
Recently, some import traders have reported a shortage of sales for slip-biased tax quotas and 1% tariff quotas in the market. First, foreign cotton prices rose sharply earlier, while domestic cotton prices fell, causing spot spreads to narrow quickly. The trading price of slip-tax quotas dropped to as low as 140–150 yuan per ton, but has since rebounded to 230–250 yuan per ton over the past two days. Companies holding quotas are not rushing to take advantage of the situation. Second, the validity of the quasi-tax quota ends on December 31, and current shipments of American and Central Asian cotton are scheduled for January. Many spinning mills are concerned they may not arrive in China’s main ports before the end of the year, so their enthusiasm for using the quotas is low. Third, some cotton mills believe the global economic situation is deteriorating, and the trend of weakening cotton prices alongside global commodities appears inevitable.
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