In recent weeks, the average transaction price of domestic cotton in China has dropped below 18,000 yuan per ton (net weight), while cotton prices under the guidance of ICE remain relatively high. Most of the foreign cotton sales are scheduled for shipments between January and March 2011. As a result, domestic cotton companies are uncertain about the direction of cotton prices in the first half of next year. This uncertainty has led to a noticeable decline in the contracted volume of foreign cotton by Chinese textile enterprises over the past two to three weeks, with little enthusiasm for new inquiries.
Some large textile firms have stated that their focus on foreign cotton imports remains on premium U.S. cotton, Central Asian cotton (with Uzbekistan cotton making up 80% of the supply), and Indian cotton, which is considered to offer good value. However, U.S. cotton shipments for December are already fully booked. Although the Indian government announced that cotton exports are "free," there has been no official confirmation regarding the cancellation of the 2,500 rupees per ton export tax rebate. As such, India’s export policy remains unpredictable, and any changes could happen at short notice.
Currently, several major international cotton traders are offering Indian cotton for December shipments at prices slightly higher than West African cotton, but comparable to U.S. EMOT cotton. There is little or no quotation available for Central Asian cotton, especially from Uzbekistan, which has been very quiet recently. On one hand, drought in key cotton-producing regions has affected yields and quality. Some organizations estimate that Uzbekistan's cotton production may drop by as much as 30% in the 2010/11 season. On the other hand, demand from Chinese cotton mills for Uzbekistan cotton has remained strong. For instance, a factory in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu, and several large factories in Wuxi have sourced more than 70% of their cotton needs from Uzbekistan. As a result, many Chinese companies signed purchase contracts with Uzbekistan cotton exporters in May and June.
On August 22, the quotation for EMOTM grade U.S. cotton in China’s main port free trade zones was around 93.10–93.30 cents per pound (12/1 ship date), while Indian Shankar-6M grade cotton was quoted at 93.40–93.60 cents per pound (11/12 schedule). Uzbekistan’s M-class cotton was priced at 96.40–96.60 cents per pound (12/1 shipping period). Based on these quotations, the net price of U.S. and Indian cotton in China’s main ports is approximately 16,600–16,700 yuan per ton, which is about 300–500 yuan per ton lower than the Zhengzhou Cotton CF1101 contract (which includes warehouse receipts and associated costs).
Recently, some import traders have reported that the availability of slip-biased tax quotas and 1% tariff quotas has been limited. First, foreign cotton prices had risen sharply earlier, while domestic cotton prices declined, leading to a narrowing of the spot price spread. The trading price of slip-tax quotas fell to as low as 140–150 yuan per ton, but has since rebounded to 230–250 yuan per ton in the last two days. Companies holding quotas are not eager to take advantage of the current situation. Second, the validity of the quasi-tax quota ends on December 31, and most of the American and Central Asian cotton being contracted now is scheduled for January. Many spinning mills are concerned they may not be able to get the cotton to China’s main ports before the end of the year, so their interest in using the quotas is low. Third, some cotton mills believe the global economic outlook is deteriorating, and they expect stronger declines in cotton prices as part of a broader commodity trend.
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