May 20, 2024

[SMM comment] US debt dollar has repeatedly hit new high, Shanghai zinc led the decline of basic metals

China

Central Bank: On April 25, the deposit reserve ratio of some financial institutions was lowered to replace the medium-term loan facilities. On the same day, the open market operation was not carried out, and 150 billion reverse repurchase was due. Yu Xuejun, chairman of the board of supervisors of state-owned key financial institutions, said that the current downgrade channel has been opened and the future space is still very large. Whether it is historically or internationally, the deposit reserve ratio is 6%-8%. Reducing the RRR does not mean a significant relaxation of monetary policy.

The State Council executive meeting: decided to introduce seven more tax reduction measures to support entrepreneurial innovation and small and micro enterprise development. It is expected that the company will reduce the tax burden of more than 60 billion yuan for the whole year; deploy supervision and evaluation of the bank's inclusive financial services, and strive to At the end of the third quarter, the financing costs of small and micro enterprises have been significantly reduced.

China Daily: The new regulations for China's asset management have entered the final countdown stage and may be released before the end of this week. According to Xingye Research, after the central bank's RRR cut, the on-balance sheet liquidity gap brought by the off-balance sheet assets has been basically filled. In the future, there will be more off-balance sheet financing needs to be accepted within the table, and the implementation of the new regulations will be implemented. The conditions have gradually matured.

ZTE Announcement: The management of the company has decided to take certain actions related to the order under the relevant US law. The public disclosure of the action depends on the recommendations of the company's US legal counsel and the company's communication with relevant departments of the US government. Factors, the company's stock continues to be suspended.

The China Securities Regulatory Commission and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development: jointly issued the "Notice on Promoting the Relevant Work on the Securitization of Residential Leasing Assets", proposing to support the housing leasing enterprises to issue equity-based securitization products with the real estate industry as the underlying assets. According to the China Securities Journal, the regulatory authorities have established a green channel for acceptance, review and filing, and have given the housing lease asset securitization project a quick review, rapid approval and priority support.

United States

On Wednesday, driven by the continued increase in US debt interest rates, the US dollar index strengthened all the way, eventually closing at 91.251, with an intraday gain of 0.51%.

US bond yields rose overall, with 10-year US Treasury yields rising to 3.011%, a new high since January 2014, and a 30-year yield that soared to 3.193%. The increase in US bond yields was mainly due to the rise in inflation and interest rate hike expectations. Investors believe that the Fed’s probability of raising interest rates in June reached 93%.

Trump said on Tuesday that the US Treasury Secretary is about to visit China to discuss trade issues and is likely to reach a trade agreement with China. The market is generally optimistic about the Sino-US negotiations. The CEO of Boeing said that the dialogue between China and the United States on tariff issues is encouraging and hopes that communication between the two countries will bring positive results.

Today, the United States will announce the number of jobless claims in the first week of April 21, the market is expected to be 230,000, the previous value recorded 232,000, after the US initial jobless claims data has been below the 300,000 mark for 163 consecutive weeks, continuous Time has been the longest since 1970. At the same time, the monthly rate of durable goods orders was announced in March, which is expected to be 1.6%. The previous value is 3%. This is an important measure of business investment. If the capital expenditure is good, it will benefit the US dollar.

Europe

The euro continued to fluctuate against the US dollar, and the daily decline expanded to more than 60 points, a new low of 1.2171 since March 1. The European Central Bank will announce the April interest rate decision today, but the market is currently expected to maintain a cautious stance, which may be a partial pressure on the euro.

The European Central Bank is about to announce interest rate resolutions, and then European Central Bank President Draghi will hold a press conference, expecting the European Central Bank to maintain its monetary policy stance on interest rate resolutions. However, the bank may acknowledge that the recent economic activity data is weak, the geopolitical risks have escalated, and the March inflation data has not released a positive signal. For these reasons, the wording of the statement is expected to be slightly more cautious, and it is expected that most members will support a very gradual removal of the easing program. Barclays still maintains its previous expectations. It is expected that the European Central Bank will end its bond purchases by the end of this year, raising interest rates by 15 basis points in June next year and raising interest rates by 25 basis points in the fourth quarter of next year.

New progress has been made in the Brexit yesterday. The British House of Lords rejected the Brexit Law of Britain’s Prime Minister Teresa Lume, the third veto in a week. Although the House of Commons has the power to overturn the voting results of the House of Lords, the amendments have been able to show profound differences on the issue of "Brexit" through the two houses of Parliament. British Brexit Minister Davis said that the EU's proposed Irish guarantee was unacceptable. The UK will next be able to reach a simpler Brexit agreement.

Other markets

The EIA report released on Wednesday night sent a lot of bad news, and oil prices fell for a short time. However, WTI crude oil suffered major buying overnight, and the 750,000-volume volume helped the oil price rebound rapidly, recovering all lost ground after the EIA report. At the close, WIT crude oil rose by 0.43% to US$68/barrel in the day; Brent crude oil closed at US$74.06/barrel, an increase of 0.27%.

The latest EIA report showed that US crude oil inventories and gasoline inventories unexpectedly increased during the week, while US domestic production increased by 46,000 barrels to 10.586 million barrels per day for nine consecutive weeks. Under the pressure of the negative factors, the US and the two oils were once short-term. However, the impact of the EIA report did not last long, and oil prices subsequently rebounded sharply.

At present, the focus of oil market investors is more on whether the US will withdraw from the Iranian nuclear agreement in May. Earlier, the US State Department said that the United States did not intend to re-examine or cancel the Iranian nuclear agreement, but wanted to make a supplementary agreement. France and the United Kingdom also confirmed the news. Trump's next move in the Iranian nuclear deal will stir the nerves of the oil market.

technical analysis

Copper: The copper market was generally oscillating overnight. Lun copper stands on top of all moving averages. Below the 5th and 10th, the average line wears other moving averages to form a support. KDJ tends to slog. The focus of Shanghai copper is slightly up, between the 5-day moving average and the 60-day moving average, and the 10-day moving average is moving up to the 40-day moving average. It is estimated that today's copper is 6070~7020 US dollars/ton, and Shanghai copper is 51600~52100 yuan/ton. As the tariff day approaches, some manufacturers choose to sell goods in advance to reduce the risk. It is expected to report a premium of 240~300 yuan/ton today.

Aluminium: We will continue to pay attention to the progress of the Rusal event in the short term. It is expected that Lun Aluminum will maintain a volatile market. Today's operating range is 2185~2275 USD/ton. It is expected that Shanghai Aluminum will continue to measure the moving average support today, with an operating range of 14300~14500 yuan/ton and a spot premium of 70~30 yuan/ton.

Lead: Overnight, the Shanghai lead 1806 contract opened at 18285 yuan / ton, the night under the basic pressure on the lower average line running, the beginning of the plate was affected by the weak lead diving, Shanghai lead followed the trend of the lead lead shock, down to 18110 yuan / ton, after the short position left, Shanghai lead shock rebounded, eventually closed at 18,195 yuan / ton, down 120 yuan / ton, down 0.66%. Overnight, Shanghai lead closed two yin, above the pressure of the average line, it is expected that the Shanghai lead or shock weakened.

Zinc: It is suppressed by the negative feedback of fundamentals. The zinc is losing its yin and reversing. It has nearly half the increase in the past week. The multiple positions in the year have made the market more difficult to control. The sentiment is dominated by the wait-and-see mood. It runs at 3120 during the day. - $3,170/ton. During the night trading period, Shanghai Zinc has been filled in the gap, but it is more resistant to zinc. Although it has already laid the tone for the short-term tone, the fund-to-resistance operation should not be underestimated. Try to return to the 24,000 yuan/ton integer in the day and run at 23750-24200. Yuan / ton. Material 0# ordinary zinc is 190-220 for May, and 200-240 for double swallow.

Tin: Last night, the Shanghai-Shenzhen 1809 contract opened slightly higher and then quickly rose. The intraday high quickly rushed to 147,390 yuan/ton, but there was no further upward momentum. After a period of shocks, it fell slightly and closed at 146,820. The short-term expected shock range is 145,000-148,000 yuan / ton, today's main operating range is expected to be 146000-147500 yuan / ton. Recently, the spot market is relatively flat. There is no obvious signal to break this balance. The spot price of today is predicted to be 144000-146500 yuan/ton.

Nickel: The US dollar bond yield rose overnight, and the US dollar broke through the 91 mark, putting pressure on basic metals. In terms of fundamentals, LME stocks continued to decline, but domestic stainless steel prices continued to be under pressure. Nickel is trapped in the average line, and it is expected that today's nickel nickel will fluctuate at a high level. It is expected that the main contract of Shanghai nickel today will be 102,500~104,400 yuan/ton, and the spot price will be 102,000~104,000 yuan/ton.

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