Appropriateness, new rules, July 1 sunset: A-share pattern changes, amaranth production is a foregone conclusion

Statistics show that in the long run, the pattern of winning or losing in the stock market is probably "1 earned 1 draw and 8 loses money", which is in line with the "two-eighth law". To put it bluntly, it is the minority who earns the majority's money, and the stock market around the world is not.

However, compared with Europe and the United States, the 28th law of the big A will be more prominent, or it may be the law of the nine, because the characteristics of the zero-sum game are more obvious.

The general rule of "a few people earn most people's money" is that in my big A, I will earn money in the secondary market in the primary market, the big crocodile will make small money, and the daily limit "death squad" will make the money to stop the board and "find the dead team". The size of the non-profit earned money... An image of the saying is that "scissors" earn "chives" money. The so-called poor people stocks, the rich hit new, Superman IPO.

Appropriateness of the new rules, "amaranth" production cuts into a foregone conclusion

Since man-made "scissors", I am "chives". In the past 20 years, why have people who have stocks not only not reduced, but have increased year by year? The reason is that everyone who rushes in thinks that someone else is a leek, and that he has a pair of scissors in his arms. The ending will still return to the 28th or 19th law. How easy is it to change the scissors? Therefore, I am a big land, the soil is fertile, the leek is like leaving the grass, the old cut off the new and quickly grow out, the leek can not be cut, the spring breeze blows again.

However, such a cut amaranth game, with the introduction of a new regulation, will have the danger of "heroes useless", and there is a tendency for the leek to slowly "discontinued".

In the first half of 2017, the results of your stock trading are not the most important. It is most important that you still have the qualifications to stocks.

Starting today, the "Measures for the Appropriateness of Securities and Futures Investors" will be formally implemented.

Due to the requirements of risk management, the operating organization must carefully select the customer, and can no longer be, as in the past, “getting into the basket is the dish”. In the past, the issue of stock trading has always been the choice of brokers by customers. Now it is the brokers who choose customers, from one-way choices to two-way choices. The core of the appropriateness management approach is to strengthen the requirements of “sellers responsible for securities, funds and futures operating institutions”, so that operating institutions must bear the obligations stipulated by law while obtaining operating income, and ensure the equalization and unification of rights and obligations. .

Of course, this "method" does not completely deprive the people of the right to make a leek. If you are a low-risk investor, you cry and cry to buy high-risk products. If you want to eat leek, you can not stop you. However, the tragic fate of the once a la carte will be portrayed to you in advance, and you have to be prepared to do the "willing to gamble and lose" mentally.

According to the regulations, even if the risk-tolerant investors are insured after the necessary risk warnings, if they insist on purchasing high-risk products, they can still comply with their wishes after participating in the necessary commitment and confirmation procedures. Investment activities. Therefore, the new appropriateness management method does not restrict investors' free trade, and it is better protection of investor transactions on the basis of fully revealing market risks. However, in general, repeated dissuasion, and then irrational people will converge on his gambling.

Old leeks that have been cut too many times can be less snacks, but the newly grown leeks still require the brokers to pay more attention to their care. The participation of existing investors in securities and futures trading is carried out according to the original institutional arrangements. The implementation of the new appropriate management method will fully consider this reality and implement differentiated treatment, “new and old cuts”.

Over the years, from the simple emphasis on investors' "buyers' self-sufficiency" investor education, to the clear compliance requirements of the operating organization "know your customers", we strive to create a process of mutual selection between customers and institutions. In fact, the approach to appropriateness management that began on July 1 is not new. Since 2007, the CSRC has successively established an investor suitability system in markets, products or businesses such as fund sales, GEM, financial futures, margin financing and securities lending, share transfer systems, and private equity investment funds.

In order to avoid the choice of "you chose the wrong one, I chose the wrong one", according to the new appropriateness management method, for conservative and cautious investors, brokers will limit their buying for risk control requirements. A shares and B shares, until they fully understand the possible losses and injuries, willing to bear the worst results, and then sign and draw, swearing vows to lose money and not looking for trouble, can put them in. Starting today, stocks are no longer toilet papers in supermarkets, and anyone who wants to buy them can buy them.

Some people say that my level of stocks is not good, and I will become a leek voluntarily. I want to lose money to the stock market. Isn't the donation still not enough? The answer is that in the stock market, future donations must first be approved by the brokers and qualified. Not everyone can think of “donating” and “donating”.

According to the requirements of the appropriateness management method, the handling of high-risk business needs to be double-recorded. With the tightening of supervision and the continuous reduction of “fool traders”, it is expected that those “scissors” favorite “chives”, whether because of the requirements of the appropriateness management system or because of their own “enlightenment”, the future More and more will be blocked out of the stock market, the turnover rate of stocks will continue to decline, the volume of trading continues to shrink, Bo silly short-term operation is unsustainable, after all, when the leek is less and less, then sharp Scissors are also not useful.

The market structure is changing, and it is difficult to make money by hand-made stocks.

Even without the implementation of investor suitability management methods, the investor structure, philosophy and cognitive ability of A-shares will undergo profound changes. However, the introduction of various regulations has accelerated this trend. Compared with the past, the stock market operation pattern in the first half of this year is simply a slap in the sky. There is no doubt that the past path cannot continue to depend on it.

First, the national stock market boom began to cool down.

At present, among the investors of A-shares, the main force is still 50, 60 and 70. These generations coincide with the golden age of reform and opening up. Their wealth accumulation basically depends on individual efforts, so believe in their own ability and everything. It is the characteristics of these generations. Everyone wants to obtain property income from the stock market and share the fruits of economic growth. People with certain sources of funds themselves rush into the stock market to be the embodiment of self-confidence and self-reliance.

Second, the illusion of a rich night began to burst.

Since the reform and opening up, the accumulation of personal wealth has shown an explosive growth momentum, and it is eager to make a fortune. The performance in the stock market is the neglect of long-term stable returns and the desire for short-term returns. The theme investment is prosperous, the Bo silly game is popular, and the inside information is not lost. All kinds of distortions are the projection of this mentality in the stock market.

Third, the high turnover rate began to decline.

Since the second quarter of this year, the average daily turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets has been below 400 billion, which is a lot less than the average daily turnover of 200 billion yuan. However, compared with the US stock market and the Hong Kong stock market, even the "land amount" of A shares is much higher than the "day volume" of others.

Fourth, active management suffers.

In particular, in the case of stock trading, if investors do not use their own methods (not only fundamentals, technical aspects, news) to select stocks, and then place their own orders in the account, they always feel unreliable.

Even fund managers, the way to show that they are different is to have a unique stock selection and timing method. Few people will question the continued effectiveness of active management. However, in recent years, Buffett has begun to disagree. .

In a letter to shareholders, Buffett said that if there are a thousand managers who predicted the market at the beginning of the year, at least one pre-judgment will be correct for the next nine consecutive years. Of course, there seems to be a clever prophet in 1000 monkeys. The difference is that this lucky monkey will not allow others to stand up and invest together.

Many smart people are doing hedge funds, but to a certain extent, their work is self-neutral. Although their IQ can choose a good stock variety to bring excess returns to investors, investors pay for it. High annual fees and management fees basically offset the excess returns in this part. Therefore, hedge funds are not a good choice for investors.

Fifth, listening to the news stocks are no longer aura.

Many investors believe that buddies and news are far more valuable than the fundamentals of listed companies. They often buy a stock without hesitation just by a "message" of the buddy. Over the years, the news has led to the loss of analytical skills by investors who have strong analytical skills. People who have their own investment ideas have lost their ideas. The news has become a mysterious force that controls people's thinking. In the long run, It is like a religious belief.

Sixth, the house is still entangled in stocks.

Stocks or real estate? This is a problem. The wealth of the Chinese people is still deposited in the house. The house has evolved from a consumer product to a financial product. It has been alienated into something of the same nature as a stock. Therefore, when it comes to investment, it is either real estate speculation or stock trading. Outside, it seems that there is no money.

Seventh, the stock gods have turned down the altar.

Those who can continue to make big money in the stock market are worshipped, even if the person who makes big money is a sharp "scissor" itself, "the leek" not only does not hate, but is more enthusiastic to pursue, it is really "you dominate, I adore, there is no better way." Our favorite foreign stock god Buffett actually has no relationship with us, but it is similar to Xu Xiang, the movement of certain departments always affects the nerves of the amaranth.

Eighth, the income of new shares began to fall.

The current new stock is not a stock but a lottery ticket. The new stock is equal to the lottery. Once it is drawn, then it is not necessary to do anything. Move a small bench and sit on the number of daily limit.

Now it seems that playing new is a way to make money quickly. However, retail investors with small funds can only rely on luck. Investors with large capitals can choose new ways to get a lot of opportunities under the net. The Matthew effect is very significant.

Some people joked that in addition to the hard-working ladies in the Dongguan sauna, they can make money when they lie down, I am afraid that only the net will be new.

I believe that the era of hand-made stocks that are about to pass in the past is based on the explosion of personal self-confidence of investors. The root of this self-confidence is that from the beginning of the Homo sapiens, humans have been smugly occupying the top of the food chain and seem to be unable to be replaced. The French philosopher and the theologian Bryce Pascal used a passionate word to describe human arrogance: even though the universe destroyed him, man is still much more expensive than the thing that caused him to die, because he knows He will die and the advantage that the universe has for him, and the universe knows nothing about it. Therefore, all our dignity lies in thinking.

Since the Middle Ages, the three revolutions we have experienced before have not instigated the “dignity of thinking” of Pascal. One can still insist on the idea that the special status of human beings in the universe is not only reflected in astronomy, biology and clear consciousness, but also in advanced thinking ability. This seems to be a bottom line for maintaining the superiority of mankind in the universe. Although the meaning of the word "smart" has been very vague and even difficult to define from ancient times to the present, we still believe that there are no species on the planet that are smarter than humans. As long as it is a task related to intellectual thinking, human beings are hard to beat. We are very positive that animals are stupid and humans are smart. Humans firmly believe in their central position in the information circle, regardless of the location of all other creatures on the planet.

Artificial intelligence dominates investment, and fun will be more meaningful than making money.

Judging from the process of human cognition, human self-confidence is like a "small strong" that can't die. No matter how devastating the blow is, it can be reconstructed on the ruins.

The first three revolutions that human self-cognition has experienced have not fundamentally defeated human self-confidence.

Humans once thought of themselves as the center of the universe, but Copernicus published "The Theory of the Operation of Celestial Body" in 1543, proposing a heliocentric saying that human beings are not the center of the universe;

Humans once thought that although we are not the center of the universe, at least it is the spirit of the earth. As a result, Darwin published "The Origin of Species" in 1859, and proposed evolution theory to prove that human beings are not the spirit of all things;

Then, although humans admit that they are a group of animals, we are confident that they are higher animals and animals with souls. However, Freud's psychoanalysis proves that the human brain is unconscious, denying what Descartes said. Cogito ergo sum";

After a revolution in neuroscience, mankind ushered in the fourth revolution of self-recognition, the Turing Revolution. Human beings entered the era of super history and detonated the rapid development of artificial intelligence. Undoubtedly, the Turing Revolution has played a prelude to artificial intelligence to reshape the entire human society. It confirms that human beings, as a reed that can think, are no longer unique in their ability to distinguish them from the world. The whole world is turning into an information circle. Everyone lives in the clouds, and human beings are no longer the undisputed master of the information circle.

In the ultra-historic era of rapid development of artificial intelligence, people's self-awareness, personal privacy, identity, and even the surrounding political environment are changing.

As an important place for modern human activities, the stock market cannot be independent of this rapidly changing era:

First, the future will be an era in which artificial intelligence dominates the investment market.

Human beings are losing their dominance in the information circle, which is why more and more investors can safely and completely select the stock, time, and order by computer, and no longer doubt the reason. Like driverless cars, the current “road test” effect is showing the huge advantage of artificial intelligence in the investment field. In fact, the algorithmic trading program has already entered the actual stage of combat. The "Istonon" manipulation market case that occurred in the domestic stock index futures market has taught people the fierceness of machine trading. The company controlled by the Russian Zaya is actually starting funds. There are 7 million, with a profit of 380 million in 25 trading days and a cumulative profit of 2 billion. It is worth noting that Iseton's programmatic trading system orders 31 tickets per second. How can human traders compete with it? Einstein's IQ is 200, the future of artificial intelligence robot 300024, diagnosis may be 20,000 shares of IQ, is not one on the level.

It’s all gone, it’s no one’s annoyance. The only suspense in the future is that if all market participants eventually trade on machines, then will the stock market game not become a robotic war?

Artificial intelligence makes the manual stock trading technology useless. There is reason to believe that the future manual trading is just like slash-and-burn, and it will only exist as a non-material cultural heritage of the securities market.

Second, the future will be an era of popular asset allocation.

In the era of manual stock trading, investment is a game of human weakness. As Buffett said, when others fear greed, others fear when they are greedy, it is such a simple reason that can't be simple. However, it can be done. How many people are there?

The reason is that once a person enters a group, the IQ is gone, and a fool, as long as he maintains the ability to think independently, his IQ may be higher than the group IQ, which is incredible humanity.

The computer does not need to overcome the weakness of human nature, because it is not human, that is, it is no one at all.

In a stock market without “humanity”, “putting all the eggs in one basket and then optimistic about this basket” becomes more and more difficult to operate. The data is almost online in real time, and the arbitrage space for asymmetric information manufacturing is negligible. The possibility of digging out a gold mine has long since disappeared. The opportunity to make money tends to be very fragmented. Only asset allocation and portfolio investment can lag behind the average income.

Third, the future will be an era of passive investment.

At the 2017 Berkshire Shareholders' Meeting, someone asked Buffett why he advised his wife to invest in index funds rather than buying Berkshire stocks after his death.

Buffett replied, "She will have more money than she needs." This is the best investment for investors who want to worry less. Because "the purpose is not to double or triple her money."

Buffett said that when trillions of dollars are taken over by Wall Street financiers who charge high fees, the people who usually get huge profits will be managers, not customers. Investors, large and small, should stick to low-cost index funds.

Even the stock company believes that the industry that actively chooses stocks will not be able to see it. It can be seen that passive investment will become the main investment method in the future.

Fourth, the future will be an era of buying and holding.

Low turnover rate will become the norm. As the saying goes, silly people have stupid blessings, playing pigs and eating tigers. When the wise is over, the result is mostly clever and wrong. This principle applies not only to people but also to robots. Based on the awe of 100% of Einstein's IQ for various intelligent machines, the intangible feelings and stupidity of individual investors are far more viable than the self-sufficiency of the sun.

Fifth, the future will be an era when new stocks break into commonplace.

Don't see that the new stocks at the moment are still the hot-selling goods that can be earned without losing money. It is superstitious that this good day can last forever. With the transformation of IPO acceleration and market style, it is only a matter of time before the disillusionment of the undefeated new stocks. When investors no longer flocked to buy new shares, the new share issuance system has reached a relatively mature stage.

Sixth, the future will be an era of fun from investment.

This is very important. Blaise Pascal said that the only reason people are unhappy is that he does not know how to stay in his room quietly.

When making money, it is best to make big money to make quick money to become the sole purpose of investors to participate in the stock market, he can not be "quiet", his room must be tens of thousands of horses, his heart must also hide Tiger.

How did Buffett achieve inner peace? Because making money is not the only purpose of his insistence on investment, enjoyment is fun. Therefore, he can only get a "dance to go to work" every day.

When social wealth is accumulated to a certain extent, it may be a stage from materialism to materialism. In the high-net-worth population, “planting pigs” is only going away for the era of money exchange. It is foreseeable that there will be more and more people who participate in the stock market not only to make big money to make quick money, but an era of fun in investment is coming.

From the point of view of "seeking fun", although intelligent machines dominate the stock market and crush human beings become the norm, but the manual traders are like the folks in the iron shop, the reason they will not disappear is purely like a life like iron. The way, although it seems somewhat unreasonable to outsiders.

Just like the attitude conveyed to us by this paragraph: In order to marry a daughter-in-law, he has insisted on buying a lottery for three years, and the maximum number is 50. All of them laugh at his daydreaming. Today, he finally took the girl who sold the lottery back home.

Life is like a play, the most taboo is straightforward, your story, if anyone understands it, then it is not cool. Happy investment, happy investment, doing what you should do, why care about others?