Analysis of the current situation in the textile industry

In 2014, the textile industry basically achieved a smooth start. According to the results of the Federation's spring survey, the order of enterprises and the start of construction are basically normal. The operating rate of large-scale enterprises reaches 80%. SMEs resume production after the Spring Festival. However, on the whole, the external situation faced by the textile industry this year is still more complicated. There are favorable conditions such as the gradual recovery of the international economy and comprehensive domestic deepening reforms. There are also many risk factors such as the slowdown in domestic demand and the intensification of international competition. A series of practical contradictions such as supply, environmental pressure and cost increase are still to be solved. Statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics and Customs show that in the first two months of this year, the indicators for the production and domestic demand of the textile industry in the textile industry continued to grow, but the growth rate slowed down significantly from the same period of last year, and the export growth rate decreased year-on-year. Although the fluctuation of production and sales data at the beginning of the year is related to the seasonal and base factors, it also objectively reflects that the development pressure of the industry has not been alleviated.

In 2014, the textile industry had to achieve a 8% increase in the industrial added value of enterprises above designated size, an increase of about 11% in main business income, and an increase of 8% in total export volume, and continued to maintain a basically stable development. The task is still very arduous. The development situation faced by the industry in 2014 has two main characteristics:

First, the domestic market is generally stable. In 2014, the fundamentals of the domestic demand market were still good, the urbanization process was proceeding in an orderly manner, and the income of urban and rural residents increased steadily with economic development. This will provide an important basis for the expansion of domestic demand for textile and apparel products. At the same time, macro policies and the improvement of the economic environment are conducive to boosting domestic demand. The gradual advancement of comprehensive deepening reform measures will have a positive impact on the market environment and confidence. The scale of domestic consumption will expand steadily and conditionally. Further adjustments to macroeconomic policies, such as pilots for “reform from business reforms,” will fine-tune macroeconomic policies, which will enhance the vitality of the real economy.

Second, the international market is expected to stabilize. In 2014, although the world economy is still at a slow recovery stage, international monetary organizations and the World Bank and other agencies generally expect the economic recovery to accelerate. The accelerated recovery of developed economies will be the main source of power. As their economic recovery is strengthened and gradually transmitted to the consumer, the use of radiation and driving the global economy and markets will gradually emerge. China's textile industry will also obtain a relatively favorable international market environment, and export conditions will maintain relatively stable growth.

Third, there are still many uncertainties in the external environment. Although the domestic market will continue to grow, the downward pressure on the domestic macroeconomy will remain large, the problem of excess industrial capacity will remain unsolved, the social investment will is not strong, the overall growth rate will slow down, and high-cost traditional retail channels will face greater impact. Both will have an adverse impact on domestic demand growth. The uncertainties of the world economic recovery are still uncertain. Some countries have brought about changes in their macroeconomic policies, emerging economies are facing new difficulties and challenges, the risk of fluctuations in the exchange rate of international exchanges and international commodity prices, and the international competition and raw materials procurement companies are facing. The environment is more serious.